As Israel Goes, So Goes America
DICK MORRIS' '08 PLAY-BY-PLAY
August 6, 2008
August 6, 2008
AS ISRAEL GOES, SO GOES AMERICA
Pay attention to the Kadima Party primary in Israel, now scheduled for the middle of September. It could be the pivotal event in the U.S. presidential contest.
With Prime Minister Olmert resigning one step ahead of the sheriff, there is a primary for control of his Kadima Party. Remember that Kadima used to be part of the conservative Likud Party now headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, but it split off to follow Ariel Sharon in his path of trying to trade land for peace. When Sharon fell into a coma, Olmert took over.
The contenders are Livni, the foreign minister, and Mofaz, the former Army Chief of Staff and the current transportation minister. As a woman and a moderate, Livni will get the votes of the left of the Kadima Party while Mofaz captures the right.
If Livni wins, not much will change. She'll pursue Olmert's negotiating efforts and will not likely take military action against Iran. She'll fit in nicely with Obama in trying to appease Iran.
But if Mofaz wins, he is very likely to bomb Iran. He may even cross party lines and form a coalition with Netanyahu to get the support in the Knesset (Congress) he needs to do so without letting the dovish Labor Party, now part of the ruling coalition, slow him down.
If Israel decides to bomb Iran to stop it from getting a bomb, when would they do it?
Obviously, if Obama wins the election, they had better do it before Bush leaves office. The Democrat might not be sufficiently hard line to offer the necessary U.S. assistance and the vital American sanction for the operation.
But can Israel really proceed if the President-elect doesn't want her to? Hardly. So there is a very good chance that they will decide to bomb Iran before the election. It doesn't matter what Obama thanks of the attack before the election. And, it might have the ancillary benefit (from Israel's point of view and ours') of helping McCain by creating a foreign policy crisis for the U.S.
If a war is raging in the Middle East, it's hard to see the nation trusting an ingénue like Obama with the presidency.
Pay attention to the Kadima Party primary in Israel, now scheduled for the middle of September. It could be the pivotal event in the U.S. presidential contest.
With Prime Minister Olmert resigning one step ahead of the sheriff, there is a primary for control of his Kadima Party. Remember that Kadima used to be part of the conservative Likud Party now headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, but it split off to follow Ariel Sharon in his path of trying to trade land for peace. When Sharon fell into a coma, Olmert took over.
The contenders are Livni, the foreign minister, and Mofaz, the former Army Chief of Staff and the current transportation minister. As a woman and a moderate, Livni will get the votes of the left of the Kadima Party while Mofaz captures the right.
If Livni wins, not much will change. She'll pursue Olmert's negotiating efforts and will not likely take military action against Iran. She'll fit in nicely with Obama in trying to appease Iran.
But if Mofaz wins, he is very likely to bomb Iran. He may even cross party lines and form a coalition with Netanyahu to get the support in the Knesset (Congress) he needs to do so without letting the dovish Labor Party, now part of the ruling coalition, slow him down.
If Israel decides to bomb Iran to stop it from getting a bomb, when would they do it?
Obviously, if Obama wins the election, they had better do it before Bush leaves office. The Democrat might not be sufficiently hard line to offer the necessary U.S. assistance and the vital American sanction for the operation.
But can Israel really proceed if the President-elect doesn't want her to? Hardly. So there is a very good chance that they will decide to bomb Iran before the election. It doesn't matter what Obama thanks of the attack before the election. And, it might have the ancillary benefit (from Israel's point of view and ours') of helping McCain by creating a foreign policy crisis for the U.S.
If a war is raging in the Middle East, it's hard to see the nation trusting an ingénue like Obama with the presidency.
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